Türkiye in Focus

Türkiye in Focus: 27-31 July 2026

In this week’s Türkiye in Focus;

• Ankara and Baghdad have concluded a series of strategic agreements, marking a significant step forward in bilateral relations and regional cooperation. Researcher Burak Elmalı shared his analysis on the matter.
• The fallout from the establishment of the Yeni Parti continues to reverberate through the CHP, as both parliamentary ranks and local branches grapple with the painful reality of the split.
• Former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and his Gelecek Partisi have officially dissolved the party and retired from active political life, bringing a quiet end to their political journey.

Landmark Cooperation Between Türkiye and Iraq

Researcher Burak Elmalı shared his insights on the newly signed agreements between Türkiye and Iraq.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaydi’s Ankara visit represents an important milestone in the sustained momentum that has characterised Türkiye-Iraq relations over the past several years. The visit reaffirmed the strong political commitment on both sides to preserve and further institutionalise a relationship increasingly driven by shared strategic and economic interests. Initiatives, such as the Development Road Project and the Iraq-Türkiye Crude Oil Pipeline, continue to serve as the cornerstones of a mutually beneficial partnership aimed at enhancing regional stability while advancing long-term economic integration.

Among the five memoranda of understanding signed in the fields of education, sports, trade, natural resources, and transportation, the Development Road Project and the Iraq-Türkiye Crude Oil Pipeline stand out as the most strategically consequential. Both initiatives have gained additional significance amid growing geopolitical uncertainty and the increasing weaponisation of connectivity across the Middle East. In this context, President Erdoğan’s words, “There is no corridor without Türkiye”, reflect an emerging geopolitical reality. As instability surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbated by the Iran war, exposes the vulnerabilities of existing maritime trade routes, Ankara is actively positioning itself as a critical hub for alternative overland connectivity. The Development Road Project, therefore, represents not only an infrastructure initiative but also part of Türkiye’s broader strategy to diversify regional trade corridors and strengthen the resilience of Eurasian supply chains.

The energy dimension is equally significant. Given Iraq’s overwhelming dependence on hydrocarbon exports for government revenues, prolonged disruptions or heightened insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz would pose substantial economic risks for Baghdad. In this regard, strengthening the Iraq-Türkiye Crude Oil Pipeline provides Iraq with an increasingly valuable alternative export outlet while simultaneously reinforcing Türkiye’s role as a regional energy transit hub. Consequently, the project delivers tangible strategic benefits for both countries by enhancing Iraq’s export security and expanding Türkiye’s geoeconomic relevance.

However, the growing pragmatism underpinning Ankara-Baghdad relations extends well beyond economic and logistical cooperation. Since the outset of their recent rapprochement, both governments have framed counterterrorism and regional stability as shared public goods requiring sustained coordination rather than unilateral action. This convergence has broadened the scope of bilateral engagement and reflects a more comprehensive strategic partnership encompassing security, diplomacy, infrastructure, and economic development. Taken together, the latest high-level visit suggests that Türkiye-Iraq relations will continue to evolve around a pragmatic win-win framework, with cooperation across multiple sectors remaining the defining characteristic of the bilateral agenda in the years ahead.

New Party (Yeni Parti) Emerges as CHP Enters a New Phase of Internal Realignment

The establishment of the “Yeni Parti” (New Party) following Özgür Özel’s recent statements marks a historic shift in Ankara’s political landscape, swiftly reconfiguring the parliamentary balance. With 91 deputies resigning from the Republican People’s Party (CHP) to join the newly formed movement, the party has abruptly surged to become the second-largest parliamentary group. This massive exodus has reduced the CHP’s parliamentary presence to just 44 seats, effectively undermining its traditional opposition dominance. However, the schism extends far beyond the grand halls of the Grand National Assembly; local party branches across various provinces are experiencing severe internal rifts and confrontations as grassroots loyalties divide. At the same time, a number of media outlets traditionally sympathetic to the CHP have shifted their editorial support towards the Yeni Parti, although divisions within the broader opposition continue to dominate their coverage.

Steering the CHP through this period of upheaval now falls to Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who returned to the party leadership after a court ruling invalidated the congress that had brought the previous leadership to power. Rebuilding cohesion within an increasingly fragmented organisation will be a formidable challenge, particularly given mounting institutional fatigue. More fundamentally, however, the party’s greatest obstacle may not be the loss of parliamentary strength or media support, but the absence of a coherent strategic direction at a time of profound political change.

Consumed by internal rivalries and legal disputes, both parties have struggled to shape the broader political agenda, with organisational survival increasingly taking precedence over national policy debates.

No Future? Ahmet Davutoğlu Bids Farewell to Active Politics

The dissolution of the Gelecek Partisi (Future Party), announced by its founder and former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, marks the end of a political project that struggled to establish a durable place in Türkiye’s increasingly competitive opposition landscape. 

Known primarily for his academic background, Davutoğlu had previously served as chief advisor, Foreign Minister, and Prime Minister within the ruling AK Party before launching his own movement in late 2019. However, the party remained a marginal actor throughout its existence. Its primary function came during the 2023 elections, serving as a minor partner in the opposition coalition to help draw conservative voters, a move that secured 10 parliamentary seats for its candidates via CHP lists. Beyond this alliance, the party failed to build any meaningful momentum, capturing under one per cent of the vote when running independently in the local elections. By the time of its closure, its presence in parliament had dwindled from the original ten deputies down to just four, as six members chose to defect to other parties or remain as independents.

The dissolution of the Future Party, following Ahmet Davutoğlu’s retirement from active politics, illustrates the constraints facing smaller parties in Türkiye’s presidential system. Introduced in 2017, the new institutional framework initially encouraged a proliferation of breakaway movements as established political figures sought to capitalise on a changing political landscape. In practice, however, the system has increasingly favoured consolidation around two dominant alliances, leaving smaller parties with limited electoral prospects outside broader coalitions. The Future Party’s trajectory, from high-profile launch to eventual dissolution, highlights the difficulty of sustaining an independent political platform in a system that rewards scale, organisational strength and alliance-building over fragmentation.

Highlights

• Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met on Wednesday with Khalil al-Hayya, the newly elected head of the Hamas Political Bureau. The Foreign Minister reiterated Türkiye’s steadfast support for the Palestinian people.
• Financial probes into local authorities have expanded to include İstanbul’s Üsküdar and Ankara’s Etimesgut municipalities.
• Türkiye’s unemployment rate fell by 0.5 percentage points to a record low of 7.6% in June, with the number of unemployed people dropping by 168,000 to 2.69 million.

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