Election security is fundamental to the integrity of democracy. The credibility of U.S. elections was shaken by allegations of foreign interference, voter fraud, and other irregularities following the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.
Understanding and addressing concerns about election security in light of past experiences are crucial in the run-up to the November 2024 presidential election. On the night of November 5, 2024, the dominant topics of public discourse may shift from who will next occupy the Oval Office to issues of election security. This could include discussions about halting vote counting, arguments for a re-vote, increased polarization, and the likelihood of intensified protests following the election.
The 2016 presidential election faced various allegations regarding Russia’s intervention. Claims emerged that Russia attempted to influence the election results by launching cyberattacks and manipulations targeting the Democratic Party’s campaign.
In response to these concerns, significant steps were taken to enhance election security before the 2020 presidential election. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) designated the election infrastructure as critical infrastructure, allowing for increased federal support and coordination with state and local authorities. States implemented various measures such as upgrading voting machines, creating backups with paper ballots, and enhancing cybersecurity measures. However, despite these efforts, the 2020 election was subject to controversy.
The 2020 presidential election provided a dangerous antecedent, tainted by the rhetoric surrounding election results and mired by allegations of fraud and manipulation. Former President Trump alleged that fraud occurred in the 2020 election. He claimed that Democrats manipulated the election with widespread voter fraud and irregularities, especially in states they narrowly lost, leading to high levels of polarization and unrest culminating in the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.
In the 2020 election, former President Trump heavily targeted the method of voting by mail and the U.S. Postal Service, which continues to be criticized by Trump leading up to the 2024 election. The fact that USPS Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, whom Trump targeted on his social media accounts before the January 6 protests, still holds his position contributes to the ongoing unease among Republican voters who believe that the 2020 election was stolen.
However, limiting suspicions of fraud in U.S. elections solely to voting by mail will be insufficient. The January 6 protests demonstrated that conspiracy theories around allegations of election breaches further polarized an already divided electorate and weaken the foundations of democratic governance.
In this regard, it is significant that 89% of the 193 people arrested in connection with the attack on the Capitol had no apparent ties to established far-right militias or other militant groups. This indicates that similar manipulation and provocation could lead to mass actions following the 2024 election as well.
Despite the potential for significant disappointment among Democratic Party voters if they were to lose to Trump, they are generally prepared to accept the outcome of the election. Numerous factors could contribute to a potential Biden loss, with voter motivation largely driven by the absence of a more appealing alternative. Conversely, allegations of election fraud by the Trump campaign could spark a widely debated legal process in the media, similar to the aftermath of the 2016 election. However, this may not necessarily lead to widespread mobilization among his supporters.
It is important to differentiate between two distinct groups within the Republican voter base at this time. On the one hand, there are pragmatic Republican voters. On the other hand, staunch Trump supporters might view an election loss as evidence of deep state manipulation against their leader, particularly if these rational voices are disregarded. In this sense, they may be more open to the influence of radical right-wing groups. The connection they have with their voters and Trump’s early statements regarding election security could create a tense and protest-prone environment once again if allegations of fraud in favor of Biden arise, similar to what happened after the 2020 election.
The greatest threat to the November election may stem from a cyberattack on voting systems, potentially orchestrated by a foreign country or group. A cyber offensive from Russia might seek to advantage Trump, given the geopolitical dynamics. Similarly, given the stances of both presidential candidates towards China, a cyberattack from China could specifically disrupt the election infrastructure and vote-counting mechanisms.
The Chinese hacking group APT 31 has previously been accused of targeting critics of Beijing in the U.K. and the U.S. Additionally, U.K. Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden has previously stated that actors linked to the Chinese government attempted to hack into the U.K.’s election systems twice.
Unidentified data manipulation or an attack on voting machines in the U.S. could lead to mutual accusations between parties, exacerbated by the country’s increasing polarization, and potentially result in mass protests.
The decentralized nature of the U.S. election system, with differences in security protocols and technological infrastructure among states, poses inherent challenges. Despite being deemed secure from hacking and manipulation by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), Dominion Voting Systems are considered insecure by some groups, and an allegation of manipulation of these systems during the election could have serious consequences.
The fraud allegations that surrounded the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections highlighted the fragility of American democracy. Therefore, overcoming these challenges and reinstating trust in the electoral process is crucial.
This requires bolstering election security, enhancing local cybersecurity protocols, fostering inter-state collaboration, combating disinformation, and promoting transparency and accountability throughout the electoral process. Moreover, it is essential for political leaders, the media, the public, and figures such as Trump to uphold democratic values and respect the integrity of free and fair elections.
This article originally appeared in the opinion section of the South China Morning Post.