On April 22, 2024, President Erdoğan conducted a key visit to Iraq, which constitutes a milestone in the development of cooperation between the two sides after a 12-year hiatus.
The comprehensive discussions held in Baghdad and meetings in Erbil with Nechirvan Barzani represent significant steps in a brand-new chapter in bilateral relations, underscoring the diligent efforts of Turkish diplomacy.
With 26 different agreements signed in diverse areas such as security, trade, water, oil, education, agriculture, and finance, Ankara opened vital prospects for Iraq’s development, modernisation, and pan-regional economic integration.
While the spirit of this cooperation is built on a win-win scenario, some opportunities and risks hold significant implications for both parties as well as for the region’s geopolitics.
The background of this cooperation, particularly intensified by recent diplomatic engagements with Baghdad and Erbil, forms a crucial foundation. This visit formalised the mutual commitments underlying this long and comprehensive process.
In the domain of counterterrorism, this visit unfolded against the backdrop of Iraq designating the PKK terrorist group as an outlawed organisation and the Turkish military announcing preparations for an extensive operation in northern Iraq this summer. The establishment of a PKK foothold, along with affiliated groups, under the protection of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) in Sulaymaniyah (within the KRG territory), has been a grave concern for Ankara.
Despite repeated warnings, the Bafel Talabani-led PUK failed to heed these sensitivities, prompting Türkiye to close its airspace last year, which underscores the gravity of the situation.
The present interactions have infused a new breeze in the bilateral relations. Therefore, Türkiye anticipates significant steps from Baghdad in this dossier. More so, since terrorism is not just a problem for Türkiye, it is also a threat that disrupts the daily lives of Iraqis, endangers Iraqi border security, and jeopardises bilateral ties.
Regarding the Development Road, the strides taken not only position both countries as significant players in inter-regional connectivity but also offer Iraq the chance to diversify its heavily oil-dependent economy by attracting foreign investment and opening new areas of employment.
The escalating risk of regional conflicts, such as Israel’s Gaza conflict and threats from the Houthis in Yemen affecting maritime trade routes in the Red Sea, underscores the need for secure alternatives in trade and logistics across the Middle East. While the IMEC project has remained largely on paper, constructing trade corridors and inviting regional participation within this cooperation framework reflects Türkiye’s open and inclusive diplomatic approach. The participation of the UAE and Qatar in the quadrilateral agreement signed during Erdogan’s visit underscores their interest in putting in place more alternatives that boost the region’s inter-connectedness.
There is another side of the coin, and some hiccups could face the collaborative spirit underpinning the Turkish-Iraqi relations.
The PKK, increasingly pressured by Türkiye’s heightened military operations, could redirect its terror activities to new locations in the region. It could possibly opt for the Iranian side of Mount Kandil. This option would require Ankara to open new dialogue tracks with Tehran on counterterrorism.
Equally pressing are the issues surrounding Iran, whose stance on terrorism and sceptical approach towards the Development Road demand close scrutiny. While the degree of Iranian influence within Iraqi domestic politics and its influence network of proxies across the Middle East is problematic, Türkiye has to manoeuvre with these considerations in mind and keep its feet grounded, continuing to emphasise that the long-term benefits to Iraq’s nation building and development, and underlining the strategic nature of this collaboration.
So far, Iran views this Development Road initiative with a lack of enthusiasm. Both sides need to underscore the economic benefits that Tehran would reap, as this project can be beneficial for all. While the traditional approach would see this project as undermining Iran’s ports, the reality is that they will benefit more from interconnectivity than from the current isolation.
After all, the potential scenario of Trump winning the upcoming US presidential elections could lead to the return of a maximum pressure policy, forcing a sanctions-busy Tehran to reluctantly but necessarily warm up to regional initiatives of trade and connectivity like Development Road that bring economic gains to all stakeholders with different levels.
In short, the evolving relations between Türkiye and Iraq offer a beacon of hope for both nations and the rest of the region.
Türkiye’s strategic approach, taking into account Iraq’s complex political dynamics and regional realities, is crucial in fostering this newfound partnership. In turn, Iraq must actively participate in and invest in this partnership to achieve long-term objectives, including economic diversification and socioeconomic progress.
This article originally appeared in the analysis section of the Anadolu Agency.