The post-Cold War international order—once described by Francis Fukuyama as marking the “end of history”—has undergone a profound transformation. In contrast to the relative unipolarity and normative consensus of the 1990s and early 2000s, the current global system is increasingly characterised by fragmentation.
This fragmentation is driven by the growing influence of both great powers and emerging middle powers, each asserting distinct strategic positions and expanding their spheres of influence. Such a shift holds significant implications for scholars, policymakers, media analysts, and strategic communities alike. Notably, the rise of multipolarity is not occurring in isolation; it is accompanied—and in some cases, complicated—by a concurrent resurgence of unilateralism. The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency has amplified concerns regarding a drift away from multilateral cooperation toward unilateral foreign policy practices.
The intersection of multipolarity and unilateralism has the potential to erode mechanisms for diplomacy and collective action, thereby increasing the risk of geopolitical tensions and conflict. As global power diffusion accelerates, this dual dynamic is exerting pressure on the international system across multiple regions. Within this evolving landscape, Türkiye positions itself as a constructive middle power, pursuing a strategy of balanced diplomacy and cooperative engagement. This discussion paper argues three key points: First, that the international order is transitioning from a unipolar to a multipolar configuration, marked by increased fragmentation; second, that unilateralism is re-emerging as a destabilising force within this environment, particularly among great powers; and third, that middle powers—through strategic autonomy, norm entrepreneurship, and regional engagement—can help stabilise this emerging order. The analysis unfolds across three sections: the conceptual and historical context of polarity and unilateralism, the agency and typologies of middle powers, and Türkiye’s evolving role as a responsible middle power in this turbulent landscape.
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