This report provides a look ahead at 2019, focusing on what TRT World Research Centre researchers believe will be some of the most significant issue facing the world.
This report provides a look ahead at 2019, focusing on what TRT World Research Centre researchers believe will be some of the most significant issues facing the world. From the continued aftermath of the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, the war in Yemen and a decisive year for Turkey, to Brexit and the ongoing trade dispute between China and the US, our researchers offer their engaging and insightful analysis of the year to come in world affairs. The report looks ahead to major developments in Turkey, the MENA region, Asia, Europe, Africa and the United States, putting them in context and analysing their possible impacts in light of ongoing shifts in the global order.
Strategic Argument and Areas of Debate
The fragmentation of the United States-led global order has accelerated regional multipolarity, forcing emerging powers to rapidly internalise their security and economic architectures while simultaneously navigating volatile great-power competition and institutional decay. Consequently, governments face a systemic dilemma where short-term populist concessions and militarised foreign policies are increasingly prioritised over long-term institutional stability and multilateral cooperation.
Executive Summary
The 2019 strategic landscape is defined by the deteriorating relationship between the United States and China, which threatens to derail global economic stability through escalating tariffs and conflicts over the South China Sea. In the Middle East and North Africa, regional proxy wars are being reshaped by the fallout from the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, pushing the United States to reconsider its unconditional support for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, while Turkey simultaneously hardens its security posture through the acquisition of the S-400 missile defence system. Concurrently, the European Union faces unprecedented internal fragmentation driven by the protracted Brexit negotiations, the rising Yellow Vests populist movement challenging President Emmanuel Macron in France, and escalating Russian aggression against Ukraine in the Kerch Strait.
Analytical Framework and Key Drivers
Accelerating Great Power Strategic Rivalry: The escalating confrontation between the United States and China extends beyond trade tariffs into technological and territorial disputes, fundamentally undermining global economic stability. This dynamic forces allied nations to navigate an increasingly bifurcated international system characterised by the erosion of established diplomatic protocols.
Militarisation of Regional Security Architectures: States are increasingly adopting unilateral military postures to secure their immediate borders and geopolitical interests, exemplified by Turkey executing Operation Olive Branch and Operation Euphrates Shield to counter terrorist factions in Northern Syria. This regional militarisation is further reinforced by the procurement of advanced weaponry and domestic defence industrialisation.
Institutional Decay and Populist Backlash: The structural rigidity of neoliberal economic paradigms has catalysed widespread public disillusionment, most visibly manifested in the Yellow Vests protests against the government in France. Consequently, established political institutions across the European Union and the United States are struggling to contain populist movements demanding immediate socioeconomic relief.
Weaponisation of Transnational Energy Dependencies: Global energy infrastructure is increasingly utilised as a primary geopolitical lever, with Russia seeking to bypass Ukraine through the Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream pipelines by the end of 2019. Simultaneously, Turkey is positioning itself as a central transit hub via the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) to secure European markets while countering exclusionary Mediterranean energy alliances.
Reconfiguration of Middle Eastern Alliances: The geopolitical equilibrium in the Middle East is rapidly shifting due to the anticipated withdrawal of the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), emboldening the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Iran. Meanwhile, the humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen has prompted a re-evaluation of the strategic partnership between the United States and Saudi Arabia.
Strategic Assessment & Empirical Findings
- The United States military intends to withdraw approximately 7,000 troops from Afghanistan, effectively halving its presence and forcing the Afghan government to confront an increasingly aggressive Taliban insurgency.
- Turkey expects to receive the S-400 Triumph surface-to-air missile defence system from Russia in 2019 and operationalise the Multipurpose Amphibious Assault Ship TCG Anadolu, significantly enhancing its independent military capabilities despite tensions with NATO.
- Following the June 2018 summit in Singapore, the denuclearisation dialogue between the United States and North Korea remains strategically stagnant, as Pyongyang is highly unlikely to relinquish its nuclear arsenal without substantial sanctions relief.
- The British economy faces severe structural risks from Brexit, with the manufacturing sector having already lost 600,000 jobs between 2007 and 2017, while financial services—which contribute £27 billion to European exports—remain vulnerable to ongoing political deadlock.
- A severe reduction in global financial confidence is evidenced by foreign investors withdrawing a net $1.9 billion from the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) in a five-week period following the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, exacerbating domestic economic vulnerabilities.
- The United States public debt has surged to 105% of its Gross Domestic Product, surpassing $20 trillion, thereby critically restricting the Federal Reserve‘s capacity to deploy quantitative easing during a projected economic downturn.
Geopolitical Trajectories & Policy Risks
- The anticipated departure of United States military forces from Northern Syria creates a critical power vacuum that risks exacerbating regional instability if Turkey is forced to unilaterally confront the YPG without a coordinated diplomatic transition. This strategic withdrawal severely complicates efforts to safely resettle approximately four million Syrian refugees currently residing within Turkish borders.
- The implementation of uncompromising economic sanctions by the United States against Iran following the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will likely trigger a severe domestic recession that ultimately strengthens the authority of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). By eliminating the economic benefits of moderate engagement, this policy constrains reformist factions and incentivises Tehran to aggressively project asymmetric military power throughout the Levant.
- The failure of the European Union to effectively integrate the United Kingdom through the Withdrawal Agreement establishes a precarious precedent of economic disintegration that empowers right-wing populist movements across the continent. Should a no-deal scenario occur, the resulting disruption of the Free Trade Agreement will severely undermine British export markets and threaten the broader stability of the European banking system.
Critical Policy Questions & Responses
Question 1 How does the construction of the Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream pipelines reshape the strategic leverage of the Russian Federation over Eastern Europe?
Answer: By establishing direct energy corridors to European markets scheduled for completion by 2019, Russia effectively circumvents its historical reliance on Ukraine as a primary transit state. This deliberate infrastructural realignment deprives the Ukrainian government of vital transit revenues while fundamentally weakening its geopolitical indispensability to the European Union, thereby exposing Kyiv to heightened Russian military aggression in contested territories like the Donbas.
Question 2 Why does the proposed withdrawal of the Saudi-led coalition from Yemen present a critical strategic dilemma for United States regional policy?
Answer: The humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen and the international fallout from the Khashoggi assassination have severely compromised the diplomatic viability of United States support for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. However, forcing an abrupt cessation of hostilities without a comprehensive political settlement risks solidifying the territorial control of the Iranian-aligned Houthi movement while simultaneously providing Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) with expanded ungoverned spaces to orchestrate transnational terrorist operations.
Question 3 What strategic trade-offs does the Turkish acquisition of the S-400 missile defence system create within the broader NATO security architecture?
Answer: Turkey‘s decision to procure the S-400 Triumph from Russia addresses an urgent requirement to modernise its domestic defensive capabilities and achieve strategic autonomy in an increasingly volatile region. Nevertheless, this acquisition profoundly alienates the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and risks compromising the interoperability of allied forces, particularly concerning the planned delivery of F-35 Lightening II fighter jets from the United States in 2019.
Question 4 What does the endurance of the Yellow Vests movement reveal about the structural limitations of contemporary European neoliberal governance?
Answer: The protracted civil unrest directed against President Emmanuel Macron demonstrates that the dominant economic paradigms of austerity, minimal real wage growth, and high taxation possess deep systemic vulnerabilities. By failing to insulate the working and middle classes from the adverse impacts of globalised markets, the French government has inadvertently cultivated a profound crisis of institutional legitimacy that threatens to paralyse the broader integration objectives of the European Union.
Key Actors and Systemic Dynamics
- United States → Competes with → China
- Russia → Undermines → Ukraine
- Turkey → Coordinates with → United States
- Yellow Vests → Challenges → President Emmanuel Macron
- Iran → Supports → Hezbollah
- Saudi Arabia → Is affected by → United States Senate
- Brexit → Weakens → European Union
- Khalifa Haftar → Challenges → Government of National Accord (GNA)
- Federal Reserve → Shapes → United States Economy
- Zalmay Khalilzad → Coordinates with → Taliban
