The Hungarian Elections: A Return to Europe or a New Realpolitik?

Following sixteen years of continuous governance, Viktor Orbán and the Fidesz party suffered a decisive defeat at the hands of the Tisza Party, led by Péter Magyar. This outcome constitutes not just an electoral victory but a fundamental political transformation. With 53 per cent of the vote and 138 seats in the National Assembly, Tisza has secured both the mandate to govern inde- pendently and the supermajority necessary for constitutional reform, enabling it to reshape Hungary’s institutional framework.

This result generated a notable sense of relief among European leaders, particularly in Brussels. Over time, Orbán’s confrontational rhetoric and ongoing conflicts with Euro- pean Union norms had rendered the Brussels-Budapest relationship a persistent source of tension. Disputes over the rule of law, democratic backsliding, allegations of systemic corruption, and Orbán’s ambiguous stance on the war in Ukraine all contributed to this divide. By positioning him- self against the EU’s consensus on Russia, Orbán became a central figure in European dissent over sanctions against Moscow. As a result, for many within the European elite, the election outcome represents not only a democratic transition but also a perceived liberation from a problematic outlier and a symbolic “return to Europe” for Hungary.

This policy outlook contends that the 2026 Hungarian elections should not be viewed simply as a “return to Europe.” Instead, they represent a convergence of three deeper dynamics—the erosion of Europe’s normative coherence, the persistence of structural constraints in the EU’s Russia policy, and the primacy of domestic economic drivers. These dynamics, explored in the following sections, suggest recalibrated continuity rather than decisive geopolitical rupture.

Indeed, the reaction from the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, was emblematic of this optimism. While the dust had barely settled, she hailed the results, asserting that “Hungary has chosen Europe” and is officially “back on the European path.” Similar sentiments echoed throughout various European chancelleries.

However, these early celebrations overlook a crucial issue: is Budapest’s new administration genuinely ready for the kind of close relationship Brussels envisions? More importantly, the real question has shifted. It is less about whether Hungary is rejoining Europe and more about whether to- day’s Europe can still inspire the strong loyalty it once did. The true importance of these elections lies not just in Budapest aligning with Brussels but in whether the European liberal-democratic ideal retains its appeal amid today’s changing realities and instability.

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Ihsan Faruk Kılavuz
Ihsan Faruk Kılavuz
Ihsan Faruk Kılavuz holds a Bachelor of Laws degree from Ankara Haci Bayram Veli (Ankara Gazi) University (2015–19) and a Master of Laws degree from Queen Mary University of London (2022–23). With one year’s experience as a trainee solicitor, he specialises in public international law — including human rights law and the law of armed conflict — alongside expertise in terrorism issues, migration studies, and international treaty law. He is currently undertaking a PhD in public law at Galatasaray University.

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