Safe Return or Not? Expectations vs. Reality of Syrian Refugee Repatriation

The fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 was hailed as a turning point that could finally enable millions of displaced Syrians to return home. Yet nearly a year later, the optimism surrounding refugee repatriation has collided with a far more complex reality. This policy outlook, “Safe Return or Not? Expectations vs. Reality of Syrian Refugee Repatriation,” explores the disparity between projected and actual returns in the post-Assad era. Drawing on recent UNHCR and IOM data, it traces how fragile security, devastated infrastructure, and economic collapse continue to obstruct large-scale return. The analysis also reveals how political fragmentation and localised power struggles shape who can safely go back—and who cannot. Ultimately, it argues that durable repatriation hinges not on regime change but on restoring sovereignty, rebuilding essential services, and reviving livelihoods to make return both voluntary and sustainable.