This paper argues that despite the heightened tensions resulting from escalation in Idlib, Ankara and Moscow will continue their fragile relationship and avoid any direct military encounter. However, they are likely to approach the relationship with more skepticism in the near future.

Yusuf Selman İnanç 24 March 2020

This paper argues that despite the heightened tensions resulting from escalation in Idlib, Ankara and Moscow will continue their fragile relationship and avoid any direct military encounter. However, they are likely to approach the relationship with more skepticism in the near future. The Turkish-Russian rapprochement that took place in the last few years was substantially a result of the West’s negligence towards Turkey’s security concerns, such as backing the PKK’s offshoot in Syria (the PYD/YPG) and inaction with regards to an unprecedented refugee flow in Syria. It also resulted from Turkey’s search for a solution to the Syrian war on a regional level through presenting itself as a significant player in the region. Accordingly, this paper discusses the Idlib crisis and its impacts. Moreover, the nature of Turkish-Russian relations will be discussed. Finally, the West’s role in shaping bilateral relations between Ankara and Moscow will be explored.

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