Local media in the United States (US) routinely report on the journey of undocumented immigrants which use the services of shady yet sophisticated networks to reach the US and start working illegally.
Roughly 2.5 million who entered the U.S. illegally last year via clandestine routes. The commonplace nature of these occurrences is a source of unease for many. Recently, the security of the southern border has gained renewed attention. Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s decision to erect new barbed wire barriers, despite a Supreme Court ruling and backed by 25 Republican states and former President Trump, has reinvigorated the debate.
According to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s (CBP) report, in the Fiscal Year 2023, illegal crossings at the Southwest Border (SWB) have increased by over 40% since the Fiscal Year 2021, by 4% compared to the Fiscal Year 2022, and by over 100% compared to the Fiscal Year 2019.
As another presidential election looms, it appears Biden and Trump may face off once more. A central issue for both candidates will be convincing their supporters and swing voters of their stance on illegal immigration.
According to the 2021 data in the United States, approximately 10.5 million unauthorized immigrants reside in the U.S. With new southern border crossings, this number is believed to have increased by about 4.9 million. Overstayed visas further add to these figures. It’s important to consider the status of unauthorized immigrants in states, as it could sway election outcomes. States with significant unauthorized immigrant populations include California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois.
Swing state Florida was won by Trump in the 2020 elections, and the current scenario suggests that Democrats might face challenges in the 2022 elections. In the 2020 elections, Biden won New Jersey by approximately 725,000 votes and Illinois by a margin of around 1 million votes. Biden’s substantial margins might now be vulnerable to Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric, potentially shifting the tide in favor of Republicans. Failing to win just these three states would mean a loss of 63 Electoral votes for Biden. Even in traditionally Democratic states, Biden could face a decrease in votes, and there are numerous reasons for this shift.
Economic factors, the housing crisis, and security concerns are on the top of the list. From June 2022 to March 2023, the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation decreased from 9.1% to 5.0%. However, the contribution of housing to inflation increased significantly during this period.
According to the National Association of Realtors, there is currently a housing shortage in the United States, ranging between 5.5 to 6.8 million units. The U.S. adds approximately 2 to 2.4 million new households each year, all of which are assumed to require housing. However, data from 2023 indicates that an estimated 1,413,100 housing constructions started, which is 9.0% below the 2022 figure of 1,552,600. This suggests that the housing problem, exacerbated by the unauthorized and unplanned migration crisis in the U.S., is likely to worsen in the future.
Republicans might capitalize on the ‘uncontrolled’ nature of this migration, with concerns over job displacement, wage suppression, and security fears resonating with the public. Despite this, the United States does not embrace xenophobia as in Europe’s far-right trends but rather upholds diversity through programs like the Green Card lottery and citizenship initiatives. A Statista survey from November 2023 showed that 68% of Americans see lawful immigration positively.
In general, there were approximately 7.8 million unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. workforce in 2021. Additionally, when adding the 35,433 aliens with criminal convictions or outstanding warrants nationwide arrested by the CBP to these numbers, Biden’s position appears weaker against the Republicans because the level of concern about illegal immigration is steadily increasing.
According to a June 2023 report by the Pew Research Center, nearly 47% of Americans consider illegal immigration a very significant problem in the country. The likelihood of Republicans viewing illegal immigration as a major national issue is much higher, with 70% compared to Democrats at 25%. When asked about which party’s policies on immigration they align with more, a greater number of Americans state they align with the Republican Party (41%) rather than the Democratic Party (31%) in general on immigration policies.
Given these dynamics, the Biden administration faces a disadvantage on unauthorized immigration issues compared to its rivals. In fact, the incumbent administration is between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, Republican-leaning constituencies underscore its challenges in curtailing illegal immigration. On the other hand, left-leaning constituencies criticize that the administration has not significantly diverged from Trump’s policies, leading to continued harsh treatment of immigrants.
The US is not the only country that has problems with immigration, but it faces a special dilemma. In a way, it is torn between identitarian factors and economic considerations. Its economy needs more immigrants, particularly highly skilled ones, to make up for the low birth rate and to keep its competitiveness. However, Trump and the Republicans are notoriously shrewd in manipulating societal fears. In any case, addressing the public perceptions on this issue represent a key factor for the Biden administration to win the upcoming elections.
This article originally appeared in the opinion section of the website Middle East Monitor.
