A Biden vs. Trump rematch is déjà vu for many in the U.S., and enthusiasm for such a face-off is rather low. Yet, despite Americans’ alleged desire for a third party to break the binary electoral pattern, their votes seldom reflect this preference. A key factor behind this reality is that political success is generally determined by the ability to mobilize resources such as money, organizational support, and media coverage.
Third-party candidates often struggle to compete with major parties in fundraising and accessing resources. Additionally, the main challenge is the electoral system itself, which favors politicians from the two main parties.Therefore, candidates like Ross Perot, Ralph Nader, and Jill Stein have struggled to gain significant momentum in presidential elections.
However, in the 2024 presidential election, there is a name that could make a difference this time: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
In the prospective rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in November 2024, polls indicate that Kennedy, who withdrew from the Democratic Party primaries and ran as an independent candidate, has a potential vote share of up to 16% against his rivals.
In the current polarized political climate in the US, Kennedy is likely to find more support from the public. According to the Economist/YouGov report dated February 11 – 13, 2024, Kennedy is among the most liked figures in national politics. 47% of Americans have a positive view of him, while 35% have a negative view. In the same report, 49% of respondents have a positive view of Trump as opposed to 48% who view him negatively. Conversely, 42% have a positive view of Biden versus 54% who hold a negative view of the incumbent. While the heated and polarized political environment tainted both Biden and Trump in the eyes of the Republican and Democratic bases, respectively, Kennedyremained insulated from the smear campaigns thus far.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a member of the renowned ‘Democratic dynasty,’ found support from the Democratic base with his Kennedy surname. He has also gained support from the Republican base because of his alleged vaccine skepticismduring COVID-19 and his opposition to Biden in the primaries.
The wide gap in perception and trust between the supporters of the two major parties could create an opening for a strong independent candidate. Kennedy could surpass Perot’s 1992 presidential election vote (18,9%) share, potentially influencing the election outcome.
Save for some legal obstructions, it seems inevitable that anti-Trump Republican voters, as well as Democrats who do not support Biden and, more importantly, voters who do not embrace either candidate, will shift towards Kennedy.
At this point, for the incumbent president to succeed, the only valid card in the Democrats’ deck is the “Anyone but Trump” slogan. On the other hand, Republicans expect Kennedy to win votes from Biden’s potential supporters in critical states such as Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Michigan, which Biden narrowly won in the 2020 elections. The division among Democratic voters ensures the potential victory of the Republicans.
Meanwhile, Kennedy’s candidacy carries another important significance: it could mobilize the sanction vote. According to a Gallup report published in October 2023, 63% of voters believe that the Republican and Democratic parties are doing a “bad job” of representing the American people and that there is a need for a third major party. This represents a seven-point increase from a year earlier and is the highest figure since Gallup first asked the question in 2003.Moreover, many believe that the candidacy of any third-party candidate emphasizes the importance of American democracy, which is a plus factor that could potentially tilt voters away from the two parties’ scenarios.
The Republican Party essentially comprises a coalition of radical and conservative factions. Trump’s influence on the party is inevitable, and at this point, DeSantis, initially seen as his main rival in the early stages of the election campaign, has withdrawn without even waiting for a Supreme Court decision against Trump. During his presidency, Trump’s confrontations with the establishment and the intelligence community had already made the GOP coalition more fragile. If Trump is re-elected, the power of the far-right faction within the party would considerably increase. This could lead the mainstream conservative wing of the party to explore new avenues outside the party.
On the other hand, the problem is not limited to the GOP. The U.S. political system is based on a two-party balance that operates on a certain consensus. The breakdown of the GOP coalition will also affect the alliance within the Democratic Party, potentially leading to a deadlock in the two-party system.
The current democratic system in the U.S. seems to have reached its limits with the constant gerrymandering, the weakening of fair and equal representation, and the extreme polarization, which is far removed from the founding father’s vision for America. From this perspective, alternatives outside the two-party system could represent a more popular option.
Although third-party candidates have historically struggled to gain momentum in American politics, there are signs in the evolving political environment that their impact could grow. With increasing dissatisfaction with the two major parties and a rise in support for alternative candidates, third-party candidates could be the kingmakers of the country’s political future.
This article originally appeared in the website of South China Morning Post.
