President Donald Trump’s May 13-16, 2025, Middle East tour marked a significant moment in US strategy. For the first time in decades, a US president visited the Gulf without stopping in Israel, instead focusing on Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. This itinerary, coupled with a series of high-profile economic and diplomatic activities, including a $3.2 trillion deal with Gulf states, meeting Syrian transitional president Ahmad al-Sharaa (including the lifting of sanctions on Syria), and the pursuit of a new nuclear agreement with Iran, signals a profound shift: Trump is recalibrating its Middle East policy away from traditional security alliances and toward transactional diplomacy and economic pragmatism.
Trump’s decision to bypass Israel was both symbolic and strategic. Recently, US frustration has grown over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s uncompromising Gaza policy and his outspoken opposition to US-Iran nuclear talks. As the Gaza conflict dragged on and Israeli military operations intensified, Washington’s patience wore thin. Trump’s administration, seeking quick diplomatic wins and lucrative deals, signalled that unconditional US support for Israel could no longer be taken for granted. Instead, the focus has shifted to building partnerships with Gulf states, who themselves have made clear that normalisation with Israel is contingent on progress toward Palestinian statehood.
Iran’s Mega Economic Offer to the US
A widely circulated rumour suggests that Iran has offered the United States a trillion-dollar economic opportunity as part of a potential quid pro quo for reviving the nuclear deal under Trump’s 2025 Middle East strategy. The claim has been echoed in various regional and international media outlets. While the details remain uncorroborated, the purported offer aligns with President Trump’s penchant for economic gains and transactional diplomacy.
According to these accounts, the proposal would involve lifting US sanctions in return for American access to Iran’s energy, infrastructure, and consumer markets—areas that have mainly remained underdeveloped due to prolonged international restrictions. With a population exceeding 90 million and significant natural resources, Iran represents a potentially attractive market for US businesses across sectors such as oil, aviation, agriculture, and technology.
The timing of the rumour is notable, as both sides are exploring options that could yield strategic and economic benefits: Trump seeks concrete foreign policy results to fulfil his election promises, and Iran is focused on finding ways to achieve economic recovery. Although the accuracy of the trillion-dollar deal claim remains in question, the broader narrative points to a potentially pragmatic recalibration in Iran’s diplomatic messaging.
The potential opening of the Iranian market to the United States could also mark a turning point for Iran itself. Since 1979, European and US sanctions have hindered the country’s development. Despite being one of the world’s leading nations in oil and natural gas reserves, Iran’s economy and level of development remain far behind those of the Gulf countries. The realisation of this scenario could also undermine the foundation of Israel’s aggressive policies in the Middle East, which the perceived threat posed by Iran largely justifies.
US Transactional Diplomacy
Recent deals with Hamas and the Houthis further illustrate the new US approach. The US brokered a deal with Hamas for the release of the last American-Israeli hostage without Israeli involvement, frustrating Tel Aviv. Similarly, the US-Houthi ceasefire, which ended costly American military operations in Yemen, was negotiated without Israeli input and did not require the Houthis to stop attacking Israel.
These moves have shocked Israeli officials and reinforced the perception that Trump’s “America First” doctrine now sidelines Israel when Washington’s interests conflict with those of Tel Aviv. Israel is increasingly seen as a spoiler, obstructing US efforts to reshape the region post-Assad and potentially end the Gaza war. Trump’s surprise meeting with Syria’s leader al-Sharaa in Riyadh and the subsequent lifting of decades-old US sanctions on Syria represent another major policy reversal.
This move, facilitated by Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, was made despite Israeli objections and underscores the US pivot toward engaging new regional actors for economic and strategic gain. The US is now positioned to help shape Syria’s reconstruction and potentially integrate it into broader regional frameworks, further diminishing Israel’s leverage.
Interlinked Strategy?
Taken together, these actions reflect a coherent and deliberate strategy. Trump’s administration prioritises US economic gains, de-escalation, and transactional diplomacy over traditional alliances and ideological commitments. Israel’s marginalisation is not about abandoning the alliance but about recalibrating US policy to serve broader economic and strategic interests. Iran’s economic overtures and Trump’s openness to a deal further illustrate the shift from confrontation to pragmatism.
This approach also aligns closely with Trump’s 2024 election promises. As emphasised throughout his campaign, Trump pledged to end costly foreign wars and prioritise American interests above all goals encapsulated in his enduring slogan, “Make America Great Again.”
In this context, the administration’s recent moves suggest a foreign policy recalibration grounded in national interest rather than legacy commitments. By contrast, Israel’s recent actions are increasingly viewed as serving its strategic objectives rather than aligning with broader US goals.
This growing divergence highlights a fundamental tension: while Trump seeks to advance US economic and geopolitical interests through flexible diplomacy, Israel’s insistence on a more rigid security posture risks undermining that agenda.
In fact, New US intelligence indicates that Israel is mulling a potential strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, despite ongoing diplomatic efforts by the Trump administration to sabotage an impending deal with Tehran.
In any case, Donald Trump’s 2025 Middle East approach marks a significant shift in Washington’s global priorities, looking at Israel more like a liability and replacing traditional security alliances with economic incentives, reconstruction efforts, and swift diplomatic gains. This strategy aligns with the US goal of reducing regional military engagement while boosting domestic political support.
Israel’s ongoing genocidal war in Gaza has reached a strategic deadlock. Netanyahu’s insistence on continuing the conflict undermines the US normalisation efforts and emerging ties with Arab states. While Trump does not publicly oppose Israel, his actions suggest a de facto exclusionary stance.
Trump’s “America first” foreign policy represents a clear departure from traditional US approaches in the Middle East, requiring a redefinition of relations with long-standing allies, especially Israel. The proposed nuclear deal with Iran is expected to go through a roller coaster, oscillating between maximalist demands and arm-twisting tactics. While the Trump administration demands a complete halt to Iran’s nuclear activities, Tehran insists on continuing uranium enrichment. At the end, it takes two to tango and both sides can reach a compromise if the political will exists, paving the way for economic cooperation. If this shift occurs, it will further diminish Israel’s regional influence and alter Middle Eastern power balances.
