As the upcoming 2024 elections steadily approach, the United States finds itself in a profound dilemma, echoing the words of Julius Caesar as he crossed the Rubicon: ‘Aut Caesar, Aut Nihil,’ which means ‘Either Emperor or Nothing.’
Beyond being a mere clash of political personalities, the 2024 presidential election will not only impact the nation’s destiny but the world at large.
Since World War Two, the US has been a key global geopolitical player, emerging victorious in the Cold War and becoming the sole superpower. Yet, the so-called Global War on Terror (GWOT), which lasted two decades eroded American hard power and obliged the US to a humiliating retreat. In the past two years, the Biden Administration found itself bogged down in a quagmire against Russia in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, China, which represents arguably the greatest threat to the US position as a superpower, has calmly pursued its policies. China not only surpasses the US military in personnel by more than 2 million but is also preparing to quadruple its nuclear warhead stockpile by 2035, bringing it close to the level of the United States. China’s GDP is now 22 percent larger than the US, and Beijing endeavors to surpass the US economy in the near term to become number one worldwide.
In such a scenario, the upcoming election is crucial not only for the US but also for the world. Power circles in Washington recognize this reality.
With less than a year to the election, the race for the Republican candidacy is intensifying. Donald Trump continues to have the lead whereas DeSantis did not get the expected momentum. In the meantime, Trump continues to play the victim card, labeling the lawsuits against him as the actions of the “deep state,” a “witch hunt,” and “persecution.”
In the Democratic camp, President Biden’s age is the source of debate. While names like Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, and Pete Buttigieg have surfaced in the media, no serious rival to President Biden has emerged.
If a rematch of the 2020 elections occurs, Trump is expected to win. According to the latest WSF poll, the former president has 47% support, while Biden has 43%.
Trump’s policies during his presidency tell a lot about the trajectory of his Administration should he return to the Oval Office.
Trump departed from Obama’s multilateral diplomacy. He assumed an isolationist stance coupled with an aggressive posture that challenged even traditional Republican norms. His ‘America First’ principle strained ties with international allies but also domestically, as he repeatedly pushed the boundaries of executive authority, often finding himself in challenging situations.
Trump’s style, characterized by a threatening tone and heavy use of social media to convey his opinions, has also been the subject of disapproval internationally.
The former president strongly criticized the World Trade Organization and threatened to impose tariffs on what he deemed unfair trade practices. He made promises to renegotiate NAFTA, which he called the worst trade deal signed by the United States. Additionally, he rejected and labeled NATO as obsolete, urging NATO countries to continue financing their defense expenditures. Trump also altered or withdrew the US from certain international agreements, such as the Paris Climate Agreement. In January 2017, he symbolically ended the United States’ participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, challenging the established order and undoing one of the significant foreign policy achievements of the Obama administration – a regional trade agreement signed among 12 Pacific Rim countries.
Another noteworthy aspect is that Trump resorted to transactional dealings and personal relationships with other leaders. However, this approach did not always work, as leaders like Putin or Jinping have deep-seated ambitions and are generally skeptical of US intentions.
Against such a backdrop, effective campaigning led to Biden’s victory in 2020. However, Biden appears to be trailing in almost every poll comparing the two candidates for the 2024 elections.
According to the November 2023 Gallup Report, 29% of individuals in the United States identified themselves as Democrats, 29% as Republicans, and a notable 40% as independents. The support from the independent voters is crucial for both party candidates.
Having the pulse of the average American voter is key to victory. It is noteworthy that about 19% of American adults mentioned some aspect of the government as the most important problem facing the country, surpassing concerns about the high cost of living or inflation (16%) and the overall economy (12%), according to Gallup polls in 2023.
It is clear that Biden has many odds stacked against him. Hence, Democrats need to make a choice. One of the available scenarios is to present an alternative candidate to Biden. The alternative should be a noteworthy figure, especially when considering public economic concerns, criticisms, and Trump’s enduring popularity. One of the prospects is former First Lady Michelle Obama ranked prominently in popularity lists in surveys conducted in 2023.
If Biden presents himself again in the upcoming election, he could again focus on America’s tarnished reputation due to Trump, much like the 2020 election campaign. Trump’s ongoing legal issues could provide additional ammunition for Biden. However, it is still a significant gamble for Democrats.
The Democrats should contemplate Caesar’s example. When the Roman leader triumphantly entered Rome, this phrase adorned banners hung on the walls of Castel Sant’Angelo: ‘Aut Caesar, Aut Nihil’ — Either Caesar or Nothing. However, after Caesar’s downfall, this slogan was derided by his enemies, who mocked the reality of reaching ‘nihil’ (nothing).
This election is not just a normal voting exercise; it marks the beginning of a process that will either sustain the US global leadership or lead the country into the abyss of nothingness.
