The recent elections in Russia send out multiple messages for the future, influencing both Russia and the wider region.
Putin’s Victory
According to official numbers, Putin won 87.28% of the vote in the presidential election, marking the highest turnout in Russia’s history with 77.49% of the votes cast. He renewed his legitimacy by achieving a historic vote share in this high-turnout election.
The Russian people have reaffirmed their support for Putin to safeguard the nation’s interests over the coming six years. Increased employment stemming from the war economy, positive economic outcomes, initiatives to alleviate financial burdens on the underprivileged, and the persistent state of conflict have all contributed to the widespread backing of Putin’s leadership.
On the other hand, media channels aligned with the opposition offer a contrasting perspective. Citing statistical analysis, the prominent opposition news platform Meduza claims that the election was allegedly manipulated in an unprecedented fashion. Other criticisms include the prevention of opposition figures from participating in the election through various means, the misuse of the electronic voting system, and the extended duration of the voting process for three days.
Putin focused his post-election speeches on the theme of a “strong Russia,” portraying the election outcomes as symbols of assurance and optimism. Despite facing significant challenges during his 24-year tenure, particularly in the last two years, Putin remains in power, resilient against Western attempts to undermine him. His leadership will continue to shape Russia’s trajectory over the next six years.
In the city of Belgorod, constantly facing Ukrainian attacks, Putin won 90.66% of the vote, indicating that consolidation is working in Putin’s favour. Even in Moscow, where the largest number of dissidents reside and where Navalny supporters had anticipated a significant protest vote, Putin garnered 85.13% of the vote.
The high percentage of votes can be attributed to various factors, including the inability of opposition candidates to gain traction and the close affiliations of existing political parties with the Kremlin.
Russia has managed to survive despite the efforts of the US, the UK, and the EU to destroy its economy with sanctions. On the front line, it thwarted Ukraine’s anticipated spring offensive by destroying the Kakhovka dam. It transformed the war into a low-intensity war of attrition and made small-scale advances on Ukrainian territory. Despite personnel losses, the Russian army has held its positions for a long time, and the Kremlin has prevented an economic crisis severe enough to incite people to take to the streets.
Restricted Opposition
The West had been promoting Navalny as an opposition leader, but he did not have the potential to affect election outcomes. Although Navalny’s tragic loss of life troubled many people within Russia following his death, there were no widespread protests observed, aside from the laying of flowers at his grave, which served as a poignant gesture. This reaction symbolised the fading of the opposition movement.
The recent deaths of Navalny and the downfall of Prigojin, who rose to prominence after Ukraine’s defeat by the Russian army at the beginning of the war but later engaged in an insurrection that the Russian circles of power would not forgive, have completely erased these two popular figures from Russian politics.
With the leadership problem seemingly resolved by suspicious deaths, the elections brought Putin an absolute victory. All three candidates who ran against Putin in the polls made statements during their campaigns indicating that ‘there was no need to criticise Putin.’ As a result, they suffered a historic defeat. The Russian people sent a harsh message of change to the opposition. In previous elections, opposition parties were content with a certain number of votes and would bargain with the Kremlin, but the election results showed that the opposition had lost this bargaining chip.
Despite heavy criticism of electoral security and the credibility of the polls, Putin seems to have successfully presented his people with the narrative that Ukraine was invaded because of Western aggression and that he is in an existential struggle for Russian sovereignty. At least, that is what the election results suggest.
Peace or War?
The restraint of international actors, as well as Putin’s strategic thinking and avoidance of becoming intoxicated with power, are crucial for the solution of current and future problems.
Over the next eight months, the US presidential elections will be the most important development that will affect the fate of the Ukraine-Russia war. In the event of a Trump victory, Ukraine will be forced to sit down at the peace table, and Russia will benefit from temporary military gains. Putin’s statements that “every war is a tragedy” and that “Russia is ready for peace talks”, combined with Lavrov’s participation in the Antalya Diplomacy Forum and Putin’s planned but postponed visit to Türkiye, a NATO member, may indicate Türkiye’s efforts as a mediator.
However, establishing a mediation mechanism and convening peace talks before conditions are ripe and the parties are ready will be a futile endeavour. The forthcoming process will determine the steps to be taken in this direction.
Putin faces serious new problems to solve. While circumstances appear to be favouring Russia on the ground, the number of Russian soldiers dying horribly increases daily. Threats from French leader Macron and Czech leader Pavel to send troops to Ukraine, compounded by Macron’s ambition to play the role of a new Napoleon, are likely to compel Putin to raise taxes to finance the war economy and issue new mobilisation or conscription decrees to bolster the army. Shoigu’s announcement that two new armies, consisting of 14 divisions and 16 brigades, will be formed by the end of 2024 foreshadows this.
What’s next?
Putin’s agenda, aimed at reclaiming the powers once granted by Yeltsin to the Soviet Republics, is set to persist into the foreseeable future. His efforts to cultivate a strong Russian identity, steeped in nationalism, have already left their mark in past events such as the conflicts in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. Looking ahead to 2030 and possibly extending to 2036, Putin’s influence is expected to expand further, particularly in regions where ethnic Russians are concentrated. One such region of significance is Transnistria in Moldova, which is home to a sizable population of ethnic Russians. Potential conflicts in this area may draw global attention, potentially leading to tragic consequences in the eyes of the international community.
Putin, who has solidified his leadership through the election, aims to win the war in Ukraine. As a result, the Russian army will persist in attacking cities, civilians, and strategic installations in Ukraine. Even though Ukraine has inflicted significant losses on Russian forces, it wouldn’t be unexpected for Russia to launch a sudden offensive to further pressure Ukraine. Regrettably, the conflict in Ukraine is just one of many instances where Russia asserts its dominance over what it perceives as its sphere of influence, and this pattern is likely.
This article originally appeared on Sabah in Turkish.
