More than a decade after Gaddafi’s ouster, there are glimpses of hope in Libya, and signs of economic recovery are plentiful. GDP grew by 12.6% in 2023, driven by stable oil production, private consumption, and exports. Inflation dropped to 2.4% as supply chains improved. However, as political divisions persist, the lack of a unified budget between East and West means that public spending remains focused on salaries and subsidies over investment.
In fact, division continues to plague Libya, fuelling instability and institutional fragmentation. The promise of democracy and prosperity fuelling the uprising has given way to a grim reality of civil war and institutional paralysis. Libya’s revolution has yet to fulfil its promises, hindered by multiple interconnected challenges. Chief among them is the failure to establish a unified, legitimate government with exclusive control over security and governance.
After Gaddafi’s fall, armed groups remained loyal to their local leaders rather than transferring allegiance to the new state. They continued to draw resources from the government without providing security or contributing to national stability. The lack of effective national security forces left a power vacuum, allowing these militias to compete for control over Libya’s oil resources. This competition has led to ongoing conflict since 2014, effectively splitting the country between rival factions.
The country has been divided between rival administrations in Tripoli and Tobruk, with each claiming legitimacy. This division has extended to key institutions like the Central Bank and National Oil Corporation, further complicating unification and economic recovery efforts. Despite the international support for the Tripoli government, the ongoing conflict between the two sides continues to hinder progress towards a unified and stable government.
The key factor prolonging the Libyan stalemate is the lack of a national agreement on the country’s future governance and vision. Those with vested interests in the status quo, like armed groups and war profiteers, have become entrenched in power and the war economy. They have little incentive to compromise and benefit from the continued deadlock. This cycle will persist until Libyans can come together in a comprehensive national dialogue to forge a shared vision.
The struggle for control over oil wealth and state institutions has become a major obstacle to Libya’s political and economic recovery, perpetuating instability and hindering efforts to establish a functioning central government.
Libya experienced a period of political division from 2014 to 2021, with competing administrations in Tripoli and Tobruk. In March 2021, a breakthrough occurred with the forming of the Government of National Unity (GNU), an interim government established through a UN-backed process and endorsed by Libya’s eastern parliament (HoR). This marked the first time since 2014 that Libya had a unified government, raising hope for political stability and the possibility of national elections in December 2021. However, the political landscape remained fragile, and the planned elections were indefinitely postponed, leaving Libya’s political future uncertain. This setback highlighted the ongoing challenges in achieving lasting stability and democratic progress in the country.
Foreign interference has been a defining factor in Libya’s political landscape. While some countries exploit the country’s divisions for their own gain, treating Libya as a resource to be leveraged, others—such as Türkiye—have pursued a more cooperative, win-win approach aimed at fostering stability. Ankara consistently supports internationally recognised governments and actively promotes the unification of institutions.
The ongoing reconciliation process between Türkiye, the UAE, and Egypt is also worth noting. This process has positively impacted the ground, evidenced by the absence of major armed clashes since 2020. Progress in Libya also depends on reaching a consensus among key international players, particularly Türkiye and Egypt, who support opposing sides in the conflict.
The Need for a Shift in Focus
The mistake that was made at the beginning in Libya is that there was too much focus on elections as a form of democracy instead of looking at institutional building and building states.
To solve the legitimacy crisis in Libya, the focus needs to shift from a narrow emphasis on elections towards a more comprehensive approach to state building and institutional development. The mistake made early on was prioritising elections without the necessary foundations of a functioning state. Libya requires a holistic process of reconciliation, institution building, and exploring alternative governance models – such as strengthening local governance mechanisms. This would help dilute power concentrations, avoid over-reliance on militias and the military, and ensure a more equitable distribution of resources like oil revenues. Only by taking this broader, long-term view on state formation can Libya build the legitimate, stable institutions needed to address its deep-rooted legitimacy crisis.
What is needed to hold successful elections in Libya?
To hold successful elections in Libya, a foundation of trust and consensus must be established, beginning with creating guarantees between conflicting parties to ensure that losing an election doesn’t mean complete exclusion from the political process. Such assurances can help mitigate fears and reduce the likelihood of post-election violence or rejection of results. Equally crucial is facilitating a comprehensive national dialogue that brings together diverse Libyan voices to agree on the fundamental basis of the country’s political system and social contract. This dialogue should address key issues such as the structure of government distribution of power and the need for a new constitution and robust election laws before holding any elections. By engaging in this deliberative process before rushing into elections, Libya can avoid deepening existing divisions and instead build a shared vision for the future. Previous attempts at elections without these foundational elements have only exacerbated polarisation. Therefore, a more inclusive and thoughtful approach is essential to pave the way for credible and sustainable elections that truly reflect the will of the Libyan people and contribute to long-term stability and democratic governance.
