As the United States signals a retreat from its traditional security commitments in Europe, the European Union finds itself confronted with an urgent imperative: the reconfiguration of its security architecture. This is not merely a matter of defence expenditure or institutional coordination; it is a fundamental strategic recalibration that will determine Europe’s ability to withstand external pressures and navigate an increasingly unstable world order. Türkiye’s role is no longer peripheral within this evolving equation—it is central to Europe’s security, resilience, and strategic autonomy.
Recent developments suggest that Europe can no longer afford to view Türkiye through the outdated lens of an EU accession debate overshadowed by political sensitivities. Instead, Türkiye’s growing military capabilities, industrial advancements, and geopolitical leverage position it as an indispensable security provider. The partnership between BAYKAR, a top Turkish defence company, and Leonardo from Italy highlights a significant shift in the UAV industry. According to La Repubblica, these companies are now working together to enter the fast-growing UAV market, which is projected to be worth $100 billion in the next decade. BAYKAR, with its $2 billion annual revenue, has become a dominant force in modern warfare, redefining Europe’s defence dependencies. This is not just about Türkiye’s technological edge; it is about Europe’s ability to secure itself in an era where drone warfare and autonomous systems are key military assets.
Beyond technology, Türkiye’s strategic location remains unmatched. Straddling Europe and Asia, it commands the Istanbul and Çanakkale straits, vital maritime arteries for NATO and EU security. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated Türkiye’s crucial role in managing Black Sea security, grain exports, and regional stability. If Europe is to build a security framework capable of addressing these challenges, Türkiye’s inclusion is not a choice but a necessity. The question is no longer whether Europe should engage Türkiye but how swiftly it can do so before strategic gaps become irreversible vulnerabilities.
Moreover, Türkiye’s military modernisation and indigenous defence production provide Europe with a crucial buffer against emerging threats. Ankara’s ability to rapidly deploy forces and maintain high operational readiness far surpasses that of many EU states constrained by bureaucratic inefficiencies. From its advanced drone warfare capabilities to its naval presence in the Mediterranean, Türkiye is not merely a regional actor but a power that actively shapes European security dynamics.
Diplomatic shifts reflect this reality. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s recent visit to Türkiye underscores a broader realisation that European security cannot be dictated solely within Brussels or Washington but must engage key regional actors with operational capacity and political will. According to Financial Times, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has privately urged EU leaders to strengthen engagement with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as NATO pushes for stronger EU-Türkiye ties amid shifting global alliances. Brussels, too, is exploring ways to deepen collaboration with non-EU neighbours, including Türkiye, as part of a major expansion of European defence capabilities. NATO’s direct encouragement of closer EU-Türkiye cooperation underscores the strategic necessity of this partnership rather than treating it as a political afterthought.
Türkiye’s role extends beyond military deterrence to migration management, counterterrorism, and energy security. As a transit hub for major energy pipelines, Türkiye has already become a linchpin in Europe’s diversification strategy, reducing reliance on Russian energy sources. A security framework that excludes Türkiye will not only be incomplete but structurally deficient.
The evolving geopolitical landscape has made Türkiye’s role in Europe’s security framework more pronounced than ever. This shift is not merely a matter of convenience but a strategic necessity recognised by key European voices. France’s Le Monde recently described Türkiye as “an indispensable partner for a weakening European Union,” echoing the views of policymakers who increasingly acknowledge that European security cannot be effectively maintained without Türkiye’s active involvement. However, translating this recognition into a concrete, long-term strategy remains challenging. If Europe is to truly pursue strategic autonomy and reduce vulnerabilities in an era of shifting global alliances, then fostering a structured, forward-looking security partnership with Türkiye will be a defining test of its ability to adapt to new realities.
President Erdoğan’s assertion that “all steps concerning Europe’s security must be coordinated with Türkiye” is not mere rhetoric—reflects the new geopolitical landscape. The European Union’s reluctance to engage Türkiye in a structured security dialogue is a paradox, given that Ankara remains one of NATO’s most militarily capable members and actively shapes security outcomes in theatres that directly affect European stability. Moreover, the BAYKAR-Leonardo partnership underscores Türkiye’s growing defence industrial integration with Europe, highlighting a future where security and defence cooperation must deepen rather than stagnate.
The risk of inaction is clear: an EU security framework that fails to incorporate Türkiye will remain strategically vulnerable, structurally incoherent, and operationally ineffective. The security challenges of the 21st century require not just alliances, but genuine partnerships based on capability, necessity, and shared interests. Europe must now decide whether it wants to construct a security order that is fit for purpose—or whether it will remain trapped in outdated paradigms while the world moves decisively forward.
