The Russia–Ukraine War and the European Security Order

    This policy outlook examines the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine with a focus on the structural factors serving as enablers for Russia and its implications on the future of European security architecture.

    With the recent aggression, the prospect of continued peace and stability in Europe has been dramatically altered. The European security order, which has been primarily grounded upon NATO and the EU, has been seriously challenged by Russia, risking a return to an era marked by geopolitical contestations, sphere of influence politics and great power competition in Europe. As Russia continues its assault on Ukraine, the initial disunity within NATO and the West now appears to be replaced by coordinated actions as Western countries have collectively agreed to impose severe sanctions on Russia. Yet, how long European leaders will be willing to bear the cost of countering Russia and what the reactions and feelings of European citizens to the rising economic consequences of the sanctions and the war will be in the medium and long run might become the determining factor for the maintenance of the unity within NATO and the EU and future of the European security order.

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