This discussion paper will assess the likelihood of sanctions’ effectiveness separately for each objective by considering the desired outcomes of the sanctions and whether the sanctions might be able to achieve their objectives.
For the assessment, the paper will accept that sanctions that have even a minimum contribution to the achievement of an objective, result in a significant concession of the target state, and take effect in a timely manner depending on the objective are effective. The first part will explore the idea that the recent sanctions are effective as a statement. The second part will analyse Russia’s and the senders’ motivations for the military operation and imposing sanctions respectively and will explain the impact of sanctions on such motivations. Considering the possibility of Russia making significant concessions, the recent sanctions will likely be relatively effective for changing the target state’s behaviour. The third part by explaining sanctions’ possible negative impacts on the international system’s structure in the long term, will conclude that the recent Russian sanctions will likely be ineffective for maintaining the international system’s structure.Download the Discussion Paper