The Rise of Daesh in Mozambique: A Threat Assessment

Rising violence in northern Mozambique is posing a dangerous risk to the stability of the region.

Rising violence in northern Mozambique is posing a dangerous risk to the stability of the region. The government’s response capacity to the ongoing violence is limited due to political and financial constraints. It faces stringent budget restrictions resulting from a decline in economic growth and foreign direct investment, a fall in tax revenue as well as a drop in aid allocated via budget support by Mozambique’s major bilateral and multilateral partners. In addition to the increasing loss of life, the brewing conflict in Cabo Delgado province risks developing into a serious humanitarian crisis, which has the potential to include severe human rights violations. Moreover, the simmering violence has the potential to spread into the neighbouring countries in southern and eastern Africa, similar to the spread of violent and extremist groups in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa over the past decade.